Military Confrontation Between Venezuela and Guyana Cools

While Venezuela has not relinquished its annexation of 2/3 of Guyana, it is no longer displaying its military force, now that Britain has withdrawn its naval patrol ship, the HMS Trent. Given the state of Venezuela's military, standing down Joint Action Exercise “Sifontes” was probably a smart move. The longer the maneuvers continued, the greater the chance for an accident or equipment failure.

When Venezuela tried to seize an ice hardened cruise ship off its coast on 30 March 2020, its expensive 2008 79.9-metre (262 ft) naval patrol ship Naiguatá sank after colliding with the bow of the cruise ship RCGS Resolute. Fortunately, no Venezuela sailors lost their lives, but the incident was a huge embarrassment to Maduro.  

Venezuela's President/dictator Nicolás Maduro, has ratcheted up the rhetoric and claims that Venezuela will not be intimidated by Britain and also accused Guyana of intending to break the Argyle Joint Declaration it signed last month in which both nations promise to avoid military confrontation and violence and to resolve the boundary dispute through dialog. So far, there has been no more dialog and Venezuela is proceeding with the annexation. 

One of the ways that Venezuela is strengthening its position in the dispute is by making deals with American and British oil companies, since they are the real power and money is their primary motivator. A deal was recently made with British oil company Shell to develop Venezuelan gas fields for export of natural gas to Trinidad and Tobago and beyond. American and British oil companies may reason that it will be more lucrative to deal with Venezuela with its world's largest oil reserves than with little Guyana. Washington's quiet retreat on the matter and Britain's feeble show of force and willingness to do business with Maduro may mean that the oil companies are prepared to recognize Venezuela's territorial claims and throw Guyana under the bus.