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Venezuela & Guyana Meet in Brazil to Discuss Essequibo

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Guayana Esequiba, the proposed state Venezuela plans to annex from Guyana.
A map of the Essequibo region in Guyana that Venezuela claims is its land. It plans to annex it as a new Venezuelan state, with the name Guayana Esequiba.

Since Venezuela recently annexed the region known as Essequibo, which makes up some 2/3 of Guyana, tensions have been running high, but concerted efforts have been made to avoid military confrontation and violence. Those efforts continued today in Brazil as the two parties continue discussions. 

Essequibo is is an area of ​​160,000 square kilometers rich in oil and minerals that was once part of Venezuela but was reassigned to British Guiana by a rigged international tribunal back in 1899. When British Guiana received its independence and became Guyana in 1970, Venezuela had hoped that the territory would be returned to them, but it wasn't. The territorial dispute eventually ended up in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) where it has sat for years without any action. Venezuela does not recognize the court's authority and believes that the dispute should be resolved between the two countries directly.

While Venezuela has effectively annexed the region, it has not removed the Guyanese from their homes or forced businesses out. It did give oil companies 90 days to abandon their rigs but then has been working hard behind the scenes to build relationships with those same companies.

The conflict is unlikely to be resolved by dialog. Guyana can't afford to give up the territory and has the U.S. and UK to back it up with military force. Venezuela's President Maduro can't back down without losing political support in an election year.  Then there is the fact that both Russia and China would benefit from embroiling the U.S. and UK in yet another war.

The most likely outcome from the Brazil meetings is to continue the dialog and maintain the status quo for a few months until more meetings are held to present the same points presented before. Maduro may be able to keep kicking the Essequibo can down the road until he is re-elected. After his power is secured for another term, the conflict may escalate into violence. However, the U.S. may amp up tensions before the election to discourage Venezuelans from voting for Maduro.