In 2024 alone, Ukrainian authorities estimate the country will need around $15 billion (€14 billion) for immediate reconstruction and recovery priorities at both the national and community level, with a particular focus on supporting and mobilizing the private sector alongside restoration of housing, soft infrastructure and services, energy, and transport. The RDNA3 highlights that while some $5.5 billion (€5.1 billion) of this funding has been secured, from both Ukraine's international partners and its own resources, about $9.5 billion (€8.9 billion) is currently unfunded.
The RDNA3, which covers damages incurred over a nearly two-year period from Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, to December 31, 2023, finds that direct damage in Ukraine has now reached almost $152 billion (€141.6 billion), with housing, transport, commerce and industry, energy, and agriculture as the most affected sectors. Damage is concentrated in the Donetska, Kharkivska, Luhanska, Zaporizka, Khersonska, and Kyivska oblasts which are the same regions that suffered the greatest damage as reported in the previous assessment.
Across the country, 10% of the housing stock has been damaged or destroyed, prolonging displacement of Ukrainians from their communities. The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam and the hydropower plant in June 2023 has resulted in significant negative impacts on the environment and agriculture and exacerbated challenges already faced by people struggling to access housing, water, food, health services.
The RDNA3 lists critical investment needs for short-term recovery and medium-term reconstruction. Where possible, the assessment considers and excludes the needs that have been already met through the state budget and support provided by partners and the international community.
The RDNA3 also highlights the continued need for reforms and policies that catalyze private sector involvement and ensure an inclusive and green recovery, as well as integrating project planning into the medium-term budget planning process.
The RDNA3 findings complement the priorities foreseen in reform and investment agenda of the Ukraine Plan that will lay the framework for implementing payments under the Ukraine Facility for the next four years by the EU. As Ukraine prepares for the EU accession process, these reforms and investments support the principles of “building back better” and the institutional capacity of national and subnational authorities.
Since the last assessment (RDNA2), the Government of Ukraine, with the support of its partners, has met some of the most urgent needs. For example, in the housing sector, according to the Government of Ukraine data, in 2023, $1 billion (€931.7 million), was disbursed toward housing sector recovery, with most being dedicated to the repair and reconstruction of damaged buildings. In the transport sector, more than 2,000 km of emergency repairs were made on motorways, highways, and other national roads. In the education sector, local authorities rebuilt approximately 500 educational institutions and since January 2023, the share of educational institutions with bomb shelters has increased from 68% to 80%.
The RDNA3 also includes stronger data and analysis of the impact on vulnerable groups of people and on communities. It presents the case for investment in Ukraine's human capital.
“The war is not over. The suffering is not over,” said Denise Brown, United Nations Resident Coordinator in Ukraine. “But communities in Ukraine are demonstrating significant courage and commitment in driving their own inclusive recovery processes and they need the continued support of their international partners. The future of Ukraine depends upon the people of Ukraine; this is where we need to invest.”
The overall costs reflected in the recovery and reconstruction figure of $486 billion (€452.8 billion) —estimated over 10 years—include measures required for rebuilding for a modern, low-carbon, inclusive and climate-resilient future. The highest estimated recovery and reconstruction needs are in housing (17% of the total), followed by transport (15%), commerce and industry (14%), agriculture (12%), energy (10%), social protection and livelihoods (9%), and explosive hazard management (7%). Across all sectors, the cost of debris clearance and management (and demolition where needed) reached almost $11 billion (€10.2 billion).