The latest version of IEEFA’s European LNG Tracker reveals that falling gas demand has been driven mainly by Germany, Italy and the UK. The continent’s LNG consumption is forecasted to peak in 2025 as a result.
With markets rapidly curbing their reliance on Russian gas in the wake of the invasion, IEEFA had forecasted that imports of LNG would rise in 2023 to make up for the shortfall; however, Europe’s LNG demand was in fact flat year on year.
Despite this, countries continue constructing new LNG infrastructure: Eight import terminals have come online since February 2022, and a further 13 projects are expected to be operational by 2030. This means that the combined capacity of Europe’s LNG terminals could be three times higher than its expected LNG demand by the end of the decade.
Russian LNG imports rise
Europe’s success in slashing Russian piped gas imports contrasts with its rising shipments of LNG from the country. Between 2021 and 2023, Russian LNG supply to Europe increased 11%; shipments to Spain doubled and to Belgium more than tripled. Turkey and Greece started importing Russian LNG in 2022.
Spain, France and Belgium received 80% of Europe’s Russian LNG imports last year.
The European terminals that imported the most Russian LNG between 2021 and 2023 were Zeebrugge (Belgium), Montoir-de-Bretagne (France), Bilbao (Spain), Gate (the Netherlands), Dunkerque (France) and Mugardos (Spain).
Europe maintains LNG terminal buildout
Since February 2022, Europe has added 53.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) of new LNG regasification capacity. Last year, eight of Europe’s 37 import terminals had utilization rates under 50%.
An additional 94 bcm of new or expanded LNG import capacity is in the planning stage and is expected to be operational by 2030. This will bring Europe’s LNG capacity to 405 bcm.