Calculating the Green Power Gap
For this report, The Rockefeller Foundation sorts the 193 UN member countries into three categories: (1) “Advanced economies,” which are the 55 countries defined as high-income by the World Bank; (2) “Energy-poor countries,” representing the 68 energy poor countries, plus the additional four* identified above; and (3) “Emerging economies,” representing the 66 countries that fall between the two categories (this group also saw their consumption increase by nearly 4,000 kWh per annum over the past 50 years, as compared to “energy-poor” countries that only saw a 500 kWh increase).
The Green Power Gap was calculated by determining how much carbon the world can emit while keeping global temperatures below 1.75°C and while accounting for population growth and development goals. It also assumes that the 55 “advanced” and 66 “emerging” countries will achieve net-zero emissions in 2050 and 2060, respectively.
Based on those calculations, this scenario’s remaining 207 gigatons (GT) carbon budget allows considerable room for the 72 “energy-poor” countries to grow. Focusing on the power sector alone, fossil fuel generation can grow moderately in the near term, but in the long term, green power must become dominant. For example, in 2030, about two-thirds of the total generation could still come from fossil fuels in energy-poor countries. But by 2040, that share would need to fall to 30%, and net zero must be achieved by 2070.
Four Pathways to Close the Gap
Achieving energy abundance will require a blend of technology, but that blend will differ heavily based on individual country resources and needs. Existing power system assets and the availability of renewable energy assets in each country will determine which type of green leapfrog opportunities are most viable. Based on this, the report identifies four pathways to clean energy abundance enabled by modern technology. These are:
- Gradual grid greening: This pathway is appropriate in countries like India that have developed grids and considerable centralized fossil fuel generation assets.
- Mixed grid renewable evolution: This pathway is appropriate in countries like Nigeria with limited grid and generation capacity but higher population density.
- Decentralized solar storage: This pathway is appropriate in countries such as Burkina Faso, which have excellent solar resources but where grid development and access to other renewable resources are limited.
- Decentralized renewable mix: This pathway is suitable for countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo with limited grid and generation assets but with diverse high-quality renewable resources available.
The Rockefeller Foundation aims to explore these divergent pathways in greater detail in future analysis.
